英和和英

出典:『Wikipedia』 (2011/03/19 22:20 UTC 版)

英語による解説

引用

Howard Raiffa (pronounced /ˈreɪfə/; born 1924) is the Frank P. Ramsey Professor (Emeritus) of Managerial Economics, a joint chair held by the Business School and the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is an influential Bayesian decision theorist and pioneer in the field of decision analysis, with works in statistical decision theory, game theory, behavioral decision theory, risk analysis, and negotiation analysis He helped found and was the first director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

• His book Applied Statistical Decision Theory with Robert Schlaifer introduced the idea of conjugate prior distributions.
• A lecture of his in the 1960s concerning the use of Bayesian methods for betting on horses gave John Craven USN, a US Navy scientist the idea of using Bayesian methods to search for a missing US Air Force hydrogen bomb lost near Palomares, Spain in the 1966 Palomares B-52 crash. Craven used the same methods again in the search for the lost submarine USS Scorpion in 1968. Raiffa has analysed situations involving the use of subjective probability and argues that subjective probabilities should follow the same rules (the Kolmogorov axioms) as objective, frequency-based probabilities.